Deal or no deal?
With a Brexit deadline missed and an election dominated by Brexit looming, Amelia Lorrimore explains what a no-deal Brexit might mean
In this day and age our lives seem to revolve increasingly around politics. When one of those things is controlled largely by a group of pretentious, middle aged men who went to Eton and Oxford (and may or may not have been a part of the infamous and exclusive Bullingdon Club), I think we have to question what direction our lives are heading in, especially seeing as it is those immensely wealthy men who seem to have been steering us towards the path of a no-deal Brexit. A no-deal Brexit is one where, rather than reaching agreement with the EU, we simply crash out, breaking our current arrangements on trade, co-operation and security.
There have been all kinds of claims from both sides about what a no-deal Brexit might mean, but for this I'm drawing on the Government's own assessments, laid out in its 'Yellowhammer' planning document.
Firstly, it's made clear that the industry that will seem to be most affected by a no-deal Brexit will be transport and trade, as it is this industry which will need to acquire new licences to export and import their goods. If transport is not prepared and those taking lorries through French ports are not ready there could be disruptions lasting three months. This would lead to significant queues in Kent, and if you think being held up in a queue for an hour when you’re going on holiday is bad, in a worst-case scenario lorries could be waiting two-and-a-half days to cross into France.
If you’re reading this, thinking that you won’t be affected by a no-deal Brexit then think again. Common households will also be affected by the change in food supplies. Fresh food supply will decrease, key ingredients will be in shorter supply, and although there will not be an overall shortage of food in the UK there will be a decreased choice. Furthermore, prices may increase leaving more vulnerable groups at risk of not being able to afford a healthy lifestyle or in some cases, enough food to feed their families. The British Retail Consortium has said that retailers are doing everything in their power to prepare for a no-deal Brexit, but not all negative side effects will be able to be prevented.
Another key factor that is highlighted in the Government's Yellowhammer document, which set out contingency plans for no deal, is healthcare. Due to the expected change in channel ports, supply chains for medicines and medical products will be made particularly vulnerable. Of course, the obvious answer would be to stockpile the medicine, and although this tactic will work for some medicines, others cannot be stockpiled due to a short shelf life. Moreover, an increase in inflation, coupled with a decline in European migrant workers would mean that adult social care providers would be significantly impacted and a no-deal Brexit may lead to some failing, with smaller providers impacted within as little as two-three months. The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) have, however, started to put out contracts for warehouse space and fridges, in order to stockpile certain medicines, and fly in those that cannot be stockpiled like radioisotopes for cancer treatment. Furthermore, £2.1 billion has been promised to the no-deal Brexit fund and £434 million has been set aside for the DHSC’s plans.
The industry that appears to be least affected by a no-deal Brexit is energy. This is because a large amount of the energy that the UK consumes originates from the UK and therefore will not have to be transported through channel ports. There will also be no imposed tariffs on energy meaning the cost for energy is not likely to increase, unless the UK split from the EU energy market which could happen either months or years after Brexit. If the UK does split from the EU energy market there would be a rise in energy costs, however the good news is, water supply will remain largely unaffected as a result of UK water coming from the UK.
The Yellowhammer document outlines many reasonable short term solutions to the problems posed by a no-deal Brexit, it is the long term solutions that are yet to be thought out. I believe it is safe to say that the people who will be least affected by a no-deal Brexit appears to be the very people likely to cause such a catastrophe, like Boris Johnson. This is because they won’t have to worry about an increased price in food or energy because they earn such an extortionate amount of money that it won’t seem like anything has changed at all, for them.
Amelia Lorrimore, Year 12
In this day and age our lives seem to revolve increasingly around politics. When one of those things is controlled largely by a group of pretentious, middle aged men who went to Eton and Oxford (and may or may not have been a part of the infamous and exclusive Bullingdon Club), I think we have to question what direction our lives are heading in, especially seeing as it is those immensely wealthy men who seem to have been steering us towards the path of a no-deal Brexit. A no-deal Brexit is one where, rather than reaching agreement with the EU, we simply crash out, breaking our current arrangements on trade, co-operation and security.
There have been all kinds of claims from both sides about what a no-deal Brexit might mean, but for this I'm drawing on the Government's own assessments, laid out in its 'Yellowhammer' planning document.
Firstly, it's made clear that the industry that will seem to be most affected by a no-deal Brexit will be transport and trade, as it is this industry which will need to acquire new licences to export and import their goods. If transport is not prepared and those taking lorries through French ports are not ready there could be disruptions lasting three months. This would lead to significant queues in Kent, and if you think being held up in a queue for an hour when you’re going on holiday is bad, in a worst-case scenario lorries could be waiting two-and-a-half days to cross into France.
If you’re reading this, thinking that you won’t be affected by a no-deal Brexit then think again. Common households will also be affected by the change in food supplies. Fresh food supply will decrease, key ingredients will be in shorter supply, and although there will not be an overall shortage of food in the UK there will be a decreased choice. Furthermore, prices may increase leaving more vulnerable groups at risk of not being able to afford a healthy lifestyle or in some cases, enough food to feed their families. The British Retail Consortium has said that retailers are doing everything in their power to prepare for a no-deal Brexit, but not all negative side effects will be able to be prevented.
Another key factor that is highlighted in the Government's Yellowhammer document, which set out contingency plans for no deal, is healthcare. Due to the expected change in channel ports, supply chains for medicines and medical products will be made particularly vulnerable. Of course, the obvious answer would be to stockpile the medicine, and although this tactic will work for some medicines, others cannot be stockpiled due to a short shelf life. Moreover, an increase in inflation, coupled with a decline in European migrant workers would mean that adult social care providers would be significantly impacted and a no-deal Brexit may lead to some failing, with smaller providers impacted within as little as two-three months. The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) have, however, started to put out contracts for warehouse space and fridges, in order to stockpile certain medicines, and fly in those that cannot be stockpiled like radioisotopes for cancer treatment. Furthermore, £2.1 billion has been promised to the no-deal Brexit fund and £434 million has been set aside for the DHSC’s plans.
The industry that appears to be least affected by a no-deal Brexit is energy. This is because a large amount of the energy that the UK consumes originates from the UK and therefore will not have to be transported through channel ports. There will also be no imposed tariffs on energy meaning the cost for energy is not likely to increase, unless the UK split from the EU energy market which could happen either months or years after Brexit. If the UK does split from the EU energy market there would be a rise in energy costs, however the good news is, water supply will remain largely unaffected as a result of UK water coming from the UK.
The Yellowhammer document outlines many reasonable short term solutions to the problems posed by a no-deal Brexit, it is the long term solutions that are yet to be thought out. I believe it is safe to say that the people who will be least affected by a no-deal Brexit appears to be the very people likely to cause such a catastrophe, like Boris Johnson. This is because they won’t have to worry about an increased price in food or energy because they earn such an extortionate amount of money that it won’t seem like anything has changed at all, for them.
Amelia Lorrimore, Year 12